Bitcoin $ 100,000 testosterone price – Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin News, Articles, Charts, and Guides
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The price of bitcoin over its 12-year lifespan has been extraordinarily volatile. There were five noticeable price spikes followed by significant declines in price action. These numerous price spikes over such a short period are very unusual in the financial markets. However, since bitcoin is traded 24/7, it trades in any given week for five times the number of hours that traditional markets are open. With five times as many trading hours per week, bitcoin has effectively experienced 60 years of trading when measured in traditional market time. Bitcoin has already traded for more hours than the S&P 500 Index, launched in 1957.
However, the aim of this article is to Hourly of these price spikes. It is already well documented that Bitcoin bull runs have occurred in the roughly 18 months following a mining rewards halving event (a fixed and predictable event in Bitcoin’s source code). This price increase is not surprising, as a decrease in the available supply in a commodity market often results in an increase in the price of that commodity. The main question of this article is why do these price spikes seem to occur in winter?
Three of these price spikes occurred during the northern hemisphere winter months, while two occurred during the northern hemisphere summer months. As bitcoin is an asset class predominantly male dominated residing in the United States, Europe and Asia, this article explores a possible correlation between seasonal variations in male testosterone levels and the timing of cyclical peaks in the price of bitcoin. Although the price of bitcoin also increased during the summer months, these events may be attributable to exogenous events, as their severity and duration were less significant than the winter peaks.
Testosterone data
Testosterone levels in men vary both diurnal and seasonal, but the seasonal variation appears to depend on day length and temperature disparities from summer to winter. The Tromsø study in Norway, measured the testosterone levels of men residing in a northern city that experiences dramatic differences in day length and temperature from summer to winter. The men in this study had a 31% difference in free testosterone levels between the summer and winter months, with the peak occurring in the winter. Another study of men in the southwestern United States found that “there are significant annual differences in the T / E ratio [testosterone to estrogen] at men’s. However, the magnitude of these differences was statistically significant only in the younger cohort of patients. The study defined its younger cohort as being under the age of 60, which is the age cohort that includes the vast majority of bitcoin investors. The southwestern US study diverged from the Norway study in that free testosterone levels did not vary as much (10% in the southwestern US vs. 31% in Norway ) from peak to trough. However, even a 10% differential is large enough to influence an acceleration in the risk-taking rate as winter approaches.
Hormonal influence on investor behavior and the gender disparity in Bitcoin
Fear and optimism drive short and medium term price action in the markets. Dopamine and cortisol are the most commonly cited hormones that drive these emotional cycles in financial markets. Levels of testosterone and estrogen, or lack thereof, can play a particularly important role in bitcoin market cycles due to the gender disparity in bitcoin as an asset class. In American Economic Review, one study found that there is “a marked difference between the sexes in the production of speculative price bubbles.” Mixed [gender] the markets show intermediate values [in frequency and magnitude of price bubbles], and a meta-analysis of 35 markets from different studies confirms the inverse relationship between the size of price bubbles and the frequency of traders in the market. Price predictions for women are also significantly lower. In male dominated markets, price bubbles are more likely to occur. As more women invest in bitcoin, the volatility of the price of bitcoin may subside over time. The term bubble in reference to bitcoin does not have a pejorative meaning. I see these booms and downturns as a natural and necessary phenomenon as the Bitcoin network moves up the technology adoption curve.
Higher testosterone levels correlate with a higher risk-taking propensity in general, but financial risk taking specifically. In Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience, a study found that “giving testosterone to traders playing an economic game that looked like real life led to increased price offers (i.e. wrong pricing) and over-optimism about future changes in asset values ââ(Nadler et al., 2017) and non-professional subjects showed similar effects, as well as an increased risk appetite (Cueva et al., 2015). Thus, testosterone appears to increase the individual’s willingness to take financial risks, as it skews the outcome estimates. As free testosterone and the T / E ratio increase during the winter months, this biological phenomenon may influence the collective optimism of bitcoin investors. Collective optimism is the main driver of short-term price bubbles.
Future prospects
The severity of these bitcoin price spikes may ease over time as the asset’s adoption increases globally. Two populations in particular may have the most pronounced moderating effect on these winter price spikes. New women investors in the two hemispheres, as well as new male investors in the from South hemisphere, may moderate this trend of winter price peaks. As winter occurs in June, July, and August in the southern hemisphere, new entrants may put upward pressure on the price of bitcoin during the northern hemisphere’s summer slump months. These summer slump months are the basis of the old trader adage of “sell in May and go away. âPart of the adage could be attributed to low testosterone levels in the summer, and not just the distraction of summer barbecues and well-deserved vacations.
Areas of further research
Bitcoin price history data is continuous in nature, while testosterone data in the referenced studies is only released with four seasonal values. Testosterone levels were measured daily, but these daily values ââare held internally by the Norwegian research team and were not published in the study. To determine the exact strength of the statistical correlation between bitcoin’s price action and seasonal levels of male testosterone, internal data from these studies must be requested and analyzed.
I contacted Dr Johan Svartberg, the Norwegian lead researcher for the Tromsø study and he asked me to officially request the internal data of the study from the research committee, which includes a fee of between NOK 26,000 and NOK 83,000 (around $ 3,000 to $ 9,600), depending on the number articles that I intend to publish. As I am not a bitcoin whale, I have chosen to publish this article as a work in progress, in the hope that the bitcoin community will be interested in crowdfunding my Norwegian testosterone data request (contact l ‘author for more information).
Perhaps a new technical analysis trading indicator could be developed based on the relative price action of bitcoin against a standardized seasonal testosterone level chart. When the price of bitcoin is below the testosterone line, it would be a signal to buy. When the price of bitcoin is above the testosterone line, it would be a sell signal.
Another area of ââresearch would be the price action of bitcoin relative to the daily variations in male testosterone levels, which tend to peak early in the morning. This data can be quite noisy as this daily spike in testosterone would only be in one time zone at a time. However, there may be noticeable daily price pressure on the upside as the sun rises across time zones, similar to a wave in a sports stadium.
Historic frenzy fueled by testosterone in the price of Bitcoin
Exogenous events leading to price spikes in summer
The price spike in the summer of 2011 is most likely attributable to the fact that Gawker shed the first mainstream light on the Silk Road market as “a place to buy any drug imaginable anonymously.” The price rose in the month after the article was published, as people suddenly learned that they could buy drugs online easily for the first time.
The price spike in the summer of 2019 was largely due to a demand for billions of dollars generated by the PlusToken Ponzi scheme in China. This Ponzi scheme was shut down by Chinese authorities in June 2019, so the demand for bitcoin suddenly plummeted and the price plummeted.
The references
Full historical Bitcoin price chart (2021, June 15). Graph of 100% bitcoin price history + related events 2009 – 2021. 99 Bitcoins. https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin/historical-price/
Eckel, CC, & Füllbrunn, SC (2015). Hello? Gender, competition and bubbles in experimental asset markets. American Economic Review, 105 (2), 906-920.
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130683
Herbert, J. (2018). Testosterone, Cortisol and Financial Risk Taking. Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2018.00101
Moskovic, DJ, Eisenberg, ML, & Lipshultz, LI (2012). Seasonal fluctuations in the testosterone-estrogen ratio in men in the southwestern United States. Journal of Andrology, 33 (6), 1298-1304. https://doi.org/10.2164/jandrol.112.016386
Saat, D. (2020, October 23). Bitcoin is a mature asset. Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin News, Articles, Charts and Guides. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-is-a-mature-asset.
Svartberg, J., Jorde, R., Sundsfjord, J., Bønaa, KH, & Barrett-Connor, E. (2003). Seasonal variation in testosterone and waist-to-hip ratio in men: the tromsø study. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 88 (7), 3099-3104. https://doi.org/10.1210/jc.2002-021878
This is a guest article by Jason Sonnefeldt. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
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