Look for Norway to top medal standings again at Olympic Winter Games | Olympic Games
STEPHEN WADE AP Sports Writer
The Winter Olympics open in 30 days and Norway are expected to lead the medal table for the second time in a row, even surpassing their record of 39 medals in 2018 in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
That’s the prediction from US-based Gracenote Sports, which released its medal ranking prediction on Wednesday with the opening of the Beijing Winter Games on February 4.
Nielsen-Gracenote provides statistical analysis to sports leagues around the world. Its Olympic numbers are based on computer models that analyze the most recent results from major competitions – and smaller ones – as Beijing approaches.
Norway are expected to win 22 gold medals and 45 in total. More than half of Norway’s medals are expected to come from cross-country skiing and biathlon.
Second place, if the total number of medals is used for the ranking order, will be the Russian Olympic Committee with 11 gold medals and 32 in total. The team in Beijing, like in Tokyo, will be known as the ROC, or the Russian Olympic Committee.
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The ROC must compete without its flag and national anthem, a fallout from a state-sponsored doping program dating from the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics. Many critics say the punishment is negligible since the athletes are still competing under the national colors.
According to the IOC guidelines, the athletes will not represent their country, but the ROC.
Germany are chosen to finish third with 12 gold medals and 25 in total. After that, the following seven countries are closely grouped. These are the United States (7 gold medals, 22 overall), Canada (6-22), Sweden (7-21), Switzerland (5-21), the Netherlands (6-20), Austria (5-18) and France (2-18).
Japan are expected to produce their most medal count at the Winter Olympics with 17, including four gold medals. Host nation China is expected to win six gold medals and 11 in total.
The Beijing Olympics were surrounded by controversy with the United States and several other countries refusing to send high-ranking political representatives to Beijing. At the heart are allegations of crimes against humanity that primarily target ethnic Muslim minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote, said predictions for Beijing are even more difficult with the pandemic. Athletes have missed competitions due to travel restrictions, especially last season. And, of course, last-minute entry lists can change if athletes test positive for the coronavirus.
“I hope we have the kind of forecast that brings us as close as usual,†Gleave told The Associated Press.
“We are trying to keep the top 10 countries as close as possible and preferably in the right order,” Gleave added. “But there will be changes to that because they are sports. Sport is unpredictable. We can ‘We shouldn’t expect this to be absolutely perfect.”
A big question is what to do with men’s ice hockey. The withdrawal from the NHL late last year has shaken the strength of many teams. Gleave said Gracenote initially picked Canada to win gold, followed by Finland and the United States.
Gleave said the new screening has Finland winning gold, followed by ROC and bronze for Canada.
Gracenote is expected to update the medal prediction around Jan. 19 and release a final prediction just days before the Olympics open, as entry lists firm.
EXPLANATOR: Why is Beijing having the Olympics again?
WHICH CITIES OR NEIGHBORHOODS WITHDRAWN FROM BID RACE 2022?
It’s a long list of refusals from cities across Europe. Oslo and Stockholm are the two prominent cities that pulled out during the bidding process. Krakow, Poland, and Lviv, Ukraine, have also withdrawn their offers.
Two other regions with potentially strong offers – St. Moritz, Switzerland and Munich – were rejected by the public in electoral referendums. The German rejection was a blow to Bach, who comes from Germany. It should also be noted that the headquarters of the IOC is in Switzerland.
Oslo and Stockholm, probably seen as the preferred venues as the IOC tried to bring the Olympics back to traditional European winter venues, have pulled out due to cost and politics.
Norwegian and IOC officials also exchanged public pikes in 2014 over their dissatisfaction with each other.
Details of the IOC’s requests to Candidate Cities for its members – including a cocktail party with the King of Norway, the use of exclusive roads and specific requests for fruit and cakes in hotel rooms – have been disclosed and described as “arrogance” by a legislator.
A senior IOC official replied that the decision to withdraw Oslo was based on “half-truths and factual inaccuracies”.
Bach admitted at the time in a 2014 interview that the Winter Olympics were a tough sell.
“The number of candidates for the winter is already very limited by geography,” he said. “In addition, we cannot forget that these are difficult times for the global economy. “
Joshua Paul
BEIJING OR ALMATY?
The choice of the IOC members fell on two authoritarian governments which required no public vote, and also had few constraints on spending: Beijing and Almaty.
Beijing spent over $ 40 billion on the 2008 Summer Olympics.
When promoting their proposals, Almaty organizers said at the time that 79% supported the bid. Beijing said 94.8% in China were in favor.
Almaty tried to win the vote, recalling that it was a winter sports town surrounded by mountains and natural snow. It was a dig in Beijing, which has no tradition of winter sports and little natural snow in the areas chosen for skiing.
Beijing and some IOC members retorted that skiers actually prefer artificial snow. The IOC also saw Beijing as a huge business opportunity for winter sports.
Beijing won by four votes, which has been described as much closer than expected, in a second attempt using paper ballots. A first attempt at electronic voting was abandoned due to technical problems.
The IOC members chose what they believed to be the least risky option, which was not the case.
“It’s really a safe choice,” said IOC President Bach at the time. “We know that China will keep its promises.”
The IOC’s choice was heavily criticized at the time by human rights groups, which noted that the 2008 Olympics did not improve rights conditions in China.
Mark Schiefelbein
WHAT WAS THE FALL?
Coming down to two candidates – not the best choices – shocked the IOC. This was part of the reason why the IOC no longer goes through a long application process to choose host cities. Bach said at the time that the nomination process produced too many “losers”.
Moreover, it was embarrassing for the IOC to explain why voters refused to hold the Olympics – especially the smaller Winter Games. The bidding process was also marred by scandals surrounding the awarding of the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics, in which IOC members were reportedly bribed for their votes.
The tender for the 2002 Winter Games in Salt Lake City was also the subject of a scandal.
As part of the new IOC site selection process, the approximately 100 IOC members no longer vote. The choice is made by the management headed by Bach. The IOC has already chosen venues for the Olympic Games until 2032.
These are: 2024 Paris; 2026 Milan-Cortina, Italy; 2028 Los Angeles; 2032 Brisbane, Australia. The only slot open is for the 2030 Winter Olympics, in which Sapporo, Japan appears to be the main contender. The IOC has not indicated when this choice will be made.
Bullit Marquez