More and more people are wondering if the UK can survive the multiple crises it faces?
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SOMETIMES societies and states face challenges that overwhelm them. These existential threats can come from within or from outside; and are often linked. The Roman Empire eventually capitulated to the Visigoths, but only after being fatally wounded by internal divisions.
Likewise, the Inca Empire succumbed to a small group of Spanish adventurers, who took full advantage of the internal conflict caused by the rivalry for Inca royalty.
History is littered with similar examples of empires and states that seemed invincible only to experience rapid and fatal collapse.
In his book Collapse, Jared Diamond unveils five main reasons why this is happening. As you walk through its five-point framework below, think about how closely these links to the multiple crises the UK is currently facing. And consider the consequences for the Union if it fails to respond to these challengers, as seems very likely.
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To illustrate his five-point framework, Diamond uses the example of Greenland Norse. A substantial company of Norse who settled in Greenland, and whose company collapsed due to circumstances which could be under their control.
The first element of Diamond’s framework is to research human impacts on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource base on which they depend. In the case of the Vikings, the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation, which was a particular problem for them because they needed the forests to make charcoal, to make iron. Thus, they ended up becoming an Iron Age European society, practically incapable of making their own iron.
A second item on his checklist is climate change. The climate can become hotter or colder or drier or more humid. In the case of the Vikings – in Greenland, the climate cooled in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate is not necessarily fatal because the Inuit – the Eskimos inhabiting Greenland in same time – did better, rather than worse, with cold climates. So why didn’t the Scandinavians in Greenland do it too?
The third thing on his list is dealing with friendly companies that can support that company. And Diamond says if that friendly support is removed, the company is more likely to fall apart. In the case of the Scandinavians of Greenland, they had trade with the motherland – Norway – and this trade declined: partly because Norway weakened, partly because of the ice floes between Greenland and Norway. .
The fourth item on her checklist concerns dealing with hostile companies. In the case of northern Greenland, the enemies were the Inuit – the Eskimos sharing Greenland – with whom the Scandinavians had bad relations. And we know the Inuit killed the Scandinavians and, probably more importantly, may have blocked access to the outer fjords, which the Scandinavians depended on for seals at a critical time of the year.
And finally, the fifth item on his checklist concerns the political, economic, social and cultural factors in society that make it more or less likely that the company perceives and solves its environmental problems. In the case of the Scandinavians in Greenland, the cultural factors that made it difficult for them to solve their problems were: their commitments to a society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being a company run by a competitive leader; and their contempt for the Inuit, whom they refused to learn.
Now compare the missteps the UK has made and how closely these relate to the framework of the Diamond collapse. First of all, the environment, the United Kingdom is far behind the others and according to The Times newspaper, its cities remain cluttered with polluted air.
Second, the UK has made a very poor attempt at climate control. And is even ready to sacrifice these small gestures for a trade deal with Australia.
Third, the UK fights with its once friendly neighbors almost every week, if not every day. Any goodwill that existed is gradually eroding.
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Fourth, the British government is obsessed with finding new enemies. He fights for example with China, then begs them to provide nuclear power plants. Then he jumps into bed with the United States and Australia to threaten Chinese interests in the Far East.
Fifth, his obsession with awarding very lucrative contracts to supporters has alienated the rest of society from having to pay for these freebies. Without agreed values ââand ethics, no society can survive.
The lessons of history are clear and compelling, the UK is heading for collapse no matter what Scotland decides. The Scots therefore have a clear choice. Stay and bear the consequences of this impending collapse. Or resign. Now.
The philosopher AC Grayling is our next guest on TNT. Join us Wednesday at 7 p.m. on IndyLive
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