Risks and rewards if Scotland emulates Europe’s tough new vaccine passport rules on Tuesday
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As SNP ministers are expected to make a decision on stricter vaccine passports on Tuesday, David Leask examines how Europe has reacted to similar harsh Covid-19 policies
As the days grow shorter and temperatures drop, the virus has started to spread again.
Across Europe, cases of – and deaths from – Covid are on the rise as we enter a third pandemic winter.
Earlier this month, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief for the continent warned that half a million more lives could be lost by February.
“We have to change our tactics,” said Hans Kluge, “to react to outbreaks of Covid-19 to prevent them from happening in the first place.”
And so governments – at least many of them – began to enact more and more restrictions, especially for the unvaccinated.
Some countries have taken what, politically, are quite difficult and dramatic decisions.
Take Austria. He first said what amounted to a lockdown for those who haven’t been vaccinated, although this has since expanded to cover everyone. Then, this Friday, he announced that vaccines would be mandatory from February, becoming the first European country to do so.
The city of Vienna, at the end of last week, made an appointment for every citizen who has not yet been shot in the arm, whether he requested it or not.
Most politicians across the continent are trying to avoid both costly lockdowns and controversial population-wide vaccination mandates.
Instead, they have increasingly turned to another tool: the âgreen pass,â or some kind of passport that shows that a person is healthy or vaccinated.
Last week, the Scottish government – which has already put in place modest and limited restrictions on unvaccinated nightclubs and other large venues – said it would follow suit.
SNP ministers will take a final decision on Tuesday on whether to extend the passport regime to cinemas, theaters and more licensed and hospitality premises.
New rules, if imposed, would come into effect on December 6.
Winter fears
COVID cases in Scotland are well outside of their late-summer peak, but looking elsewhere and their own hospitals operating at full capacity, officials fear winter. An evidence document released on Friday exposed their dilemma, the same across the continent.
âTo further suppress the virus, we are now faced with a choice,â he said.
âIt’s about limiting social contact and the risk of infection by limiting social contact by closing places, limiting group sizes and advising people not to meet others.
âAlternatively, we can enable people to meet in a low risk manner by using certification to reduce the risk of an infectious person being present in a higher risk environment. ”
The newspaper was also adamant about some of the costs of expanding the program, citing reports of “substantial loss of revenue” from the nightlife industry.
Ministers make their decision amid considerable hostility to vaccine passports from opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – as well as some business interests, even those who obviously have a lot more to lose. ‘a total closure than a passport system.
Their evidence report highlighted how many peer countries in Western Europe had reverted to vaccines or health passes.
Norway and Denmark have reintroduced or reintroduced their regimes. Wales has extended its activities to theaters and cinemas.
Since last week, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria and Israel have demanded some sort of health card – either a vaccination passport or proof of a recent test – to enter reception establishments. But the Scottish debate has not quite captured – or even replicated – the conversations about this policy on the European continent.
Letting a member of staff scan a QR code on your phone – or, more rarely, on paper – is now routine for anyone going to photos or going out for a meal in much of Europe.
âCustomers feel more secure because the chance of meeting someone who had Covid was much lower,â epidemiologist Irene Petersen from Denmark told Holyrood’s Covid committee last week.
She also said there was no problem with staff checking vaccine passports in Denmark, where they are called Coronapas.
But not everyone is happy across the continent. Usually modest but often angry protests against such projects are ubiquitous.
The biggest battles took place in Italy. Its “green pass” – they use the English term, borrowed from Israel, the political pioneer – is the strictest in Europe. As of last month, all workers must have one (although the program allows them to be tested rather than a vaccine).
Jag required
BUSINESS is not as hostile as the major hotel lobbies in Scotland. Carlo Bonomi, president of Confindustria, the main body representing the industry, said on Friday he believed vaccine passports were the tool the country should use. But he wanted to go further: compulsory vaccination.
“We must have the courage to think about it seriously,” he said.
Some business leaders have gone further. A few weeks ago, a Confindustria in Trieste equated the pandemic with a war and called âdesertersâ those who refused to be vaccinated.
The rhetoric continues to mount. Actor Massimo Ghini last week, unveiling a new horror film, said that “no vax” – the watchword for those who refuse to get vaccinated or carry passports – were the “monsters of today”.
Opponents of the Green Pass include both elements of the far right and parts of the intelligentsia who claim that politics itself is fascist.
Last week, brain thriller writer Gianrico Carofiglio – a former prosecutor and politician – softly condemned those who equate the green pass with Nazi measures to scare people as “embarrassing.”
Parts of Eastern Europe are in a much worse position than the rich countries which are considering more difficult green passes.
Either because of poor supply or reluctance, poorer countries use less vaccines. In Russia, the first country to announce a vaccine, more than 1,200 die every day, according to official statistics.
The excess of deaths during the epidemic has reached three quarters of a million. In Ukraine, the number of deaths per day exceeds 600. In Romania, it is almost 300.
Many parts of Russia – whose propaganda networks cast doubt on Western vaccines – have imposed vaccine passports. A national program is under study.
False certificates
HOWEVER, last week the Kommersant newspaper revealed that a database of Muscovites who tried to avoid their city’s vaccination passport program by purchasing fake certificates and QR codes for their phones was leaked online. There were half a million names on the list. All of them have committed a criminal offense.
This potential problem had not escaped Scottish officials. In their evidence document, they wrote: âProof of vaccination can be subject to manipulation, including false certificates. Some countries have fines and lawsuits for people who use counterfeit certificates and for companies who do not verify certificates. Including testing as part of the program could help reduce some of these risks. ”
Italy is far from the only country with a green pass system that allows people to get a QR code if they just take a test. The rules vary depending on the type of valid test and its duration.
Petersen from Denmark in Holyrood last week recommended him for Scotland. But such a policy is still pending.
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