With the exception of August, house prices in Oslo have been falling every month since February
House prices in Oslo fell 0.8% uncontrolled in September, but seasonally, house prices rose 0.2%, according to house price figures released by Indom Norge on Tuesday.
Nejra Masic, chief economist at the Forecast Center, believes the market has calmed down after a happy second half of 2020 and the first two months of this year.
In the capital, house prices have risen sharply due to the outbreak, but initial prices peaked in February. Then, home prices fell for five straight months before rising slightly in August. In September, prices fell again.
Despite the expected rise in interest rates in September, Masik believes he has calmed inflation, especially in Oslo.
– The next interest rate hike will likely take place in December and will be higher over the next few years. This will lead to more moderate price growth in the housing market over the next two years than what we saw after the interest rate cut in spring 2020.
He points out that the housing market in Norway and Oslo was in a moderate three-year period until the outbreak began.
– I think in the future we will recover this three-year period – if not for another negative shock that will reduce the trajectory of interest rates.
The price of a 12-month-old house in Oslo is now 7.2%, according to Indom Norg.
The strongest seasonally adjusted price growth in September was recorded in Bode with Fosca, where prices rose 1.1%. In Christianity, seasonally adjusted prices increased 1.0%.
In Bodo with Fosca, the 12-month growth was 14.7% in September.
Interestingly, Christianand has strong year over year growth from major cities, but Oslo is very weak. There are many explanations for this, but Carl O’Brien, CEO of the Norwegian Real Estate Association, said Oslo started the amendment earlier than other cities. said Kewing
He believes the market will remain calm after the outbreak ends, despite strong activity nationwide.
It gradually develops from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market. Sellers need to lower their price expectations in the future.
Carrie Dew Anderson, chief economist at Axars Item, said it was not abnormal that price growth in Oslo was weaker this year than elsewhere, as house prices in Oslo rose in the nationwide last year.
However, the relationship between supply and demand for secondary housing in Oslo may have led to strong house price growth in recent months, according to Anderson, with August and September increasing in adjusted price terms. seasonal variations.
– The relocation process will be silent as the community reopens
The regional relocation compared to the third quarter of last year was negative for the capital. That is, people fled the big city during the epidemics.
– As we live normally now, it will be fascinating to see if these migratory flows end up going backwards. As such, it could help jump-start housing price growth in Oslo, says Du-Anddresson.
Each quarter, the Forecast Center publishes its Future Life Survey. In a recent survey, 20% respond that the corona situation has accelerated their resettlement plans.
– As the community reopens, this may be a sign that housing demand and relocation activities will subside. Consumption of services such as foreign travel, cultural life and restaurants is competing for Norwegians’ time and money, after the housing market was monopolized for almost a year and a half, explains Masik.
He points out that rising electricity prices, oil prices and rising interest charges will reduce household budgets in the future.
– It will reduce the total cash role for people a bit, so give it some leeway in the future, he said. (Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using the link that leads directly to our pages. Copying of all or part of the Content or any other use may only take place with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional conditions, see it here.